The Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate and increased representation
in the House will strengthen the role of war hawks in Congress and bring
in many newcomers who also approve a more aggressive war plan for the
U.S.
The new members do
not take office for another two months but they together with Senator
John McCain and Senator Bob Corker are already meeting in secret. In the
new Senate they will no doubt chair powerful Senate committees. Senator
McCain confirmed the meetings and said that there were discussions on
starting to send arms to Ukraine. McCain will be chair of the Armed
Services Committee and will have on board many hawkish allies. Given
Obama's weakened position he may decide to escalate US involvement on
many fronts even though the president still will have plenty of power to
veto legislation he does not approve.
As a
lame-duck leader during
the next two years, some foes of the US may feel that Obama's power is
so diminished that they will be less cowed by any threats from him. As
Aaaron Miller of the Wilson Centre put it:
“The world sees a lame
duck with his authority undermined. It will be the perception of a
diminished President who will have a difficult time sailing the already
difficult waters of Washington.”
There are some issues that the Republicans and Obama may agree on.
One is increased support for funding the fight against Ebola. Obama says
that he will also
seek support
from Congress for more military engagement in Syria. He can probably
easily obtain this, especially if he is willing to increase involvement
considerably to please Republican hawks. Senator McCain even wants boots
on the ground beyond the 1500 or so that are already there. The
Republicans may also be quite willing to give Obama fast-track authority
in negotiating the two huge trade deals with Europe and the
Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Obama may face even more difficulties negotiating a deal with Iran
before the deadline later in November. Any deal will need Congressional
support and Congress could very well vote it down.
Senator McCain reported
he has had discussion with Bob Corker and Richard Burr both
Republicans. Corker is likely to be chair of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee and Burr of the Senate Select Intelligence
Committee. McCain as mentioned earlier will be chair of the Senate Armed
Services Committee.The discussion concerned the development of a new
national security agenda. The shape of McCain's
proposed new policy will bring the US into more conflict around the globe:
“Burr
and Corker and I will be working closely together on everything. For
example, arms for Ukraine’s [government], examination of our strategy in
the Middle East, our assets with regard to [Russian President Vladimir]
Putin in the region, China’s continued encroachment in the South China
Sea.”
Ron Paul
the libertarian and father of Senator Rand Paul tweeted: “Republican
control of the Senate = expanded neocon wars in Syria and Iraq. Boots on
the ground are coming!”
William Kristol who edits the conservative Weekly Standard agreed saying:
“I
think Ron Paul told the truth. And the truth is that his son had a bad
election season and the Republicans who were elected are various species
of hawks and not Rand Paul-like doves.”
Senator McCain said that one of his first projects on the Senate
Armed Services Committee will be to end sequestration since it requires
military budget cuts across the board. This could clear the way for
increased military spending. The Republicans also want to explore the
role of the US intelligence community in negotiations with Iran.
Republicans would like to impose even more sanctions on Iran.They also
are against Iran for its support of Assad and Hezbollah.
Senator McCain complained:
“The
Iranians are helping [Syrian dictator] Bashar Assad,” McCain added.
“They are the ones that got the 5,000 Hezbollah guys into the fight
[against Syria’s rebels], they are gaining more and more influence in
Baghdad. And we somehow believe we make a nuclear deal with them and
that will lead to other areas of cooperation.”
While McCain will no doubt support the US role against the Islamic
State in Iraq and Syria he would like a new Authorization of the Use of
Military Force. The present act was passed back in 2001 and referred to
action against Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Obama had claimed that this
gave him the authority to act in Iraq against IS without Congressional
approval but many legal scholars questioned the claim since the IS was
booted out of Al Qaeda and has fought against Al Qaeda in Syria.
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